The report entitled The Future of Housing and Home: Scenarios from 2030 uses four different scenarios rather than projections or the numbers of homes we might have, to challenge the way we think about housing and home in the next fifteen to twenty years. The four scenarios are:
•What if housing change centered on local governments and communities?
•What if national government committed to quickly addressing the housing gap?
•What if policy-makers decided to address the problem of spiraling rents?
•What happens if policy focuses on preserving the benefits of homeownership?
Shelter commissioned The Futures Company to develop the report and the event was chaired by the Financial Times' political correspondent Kate Allen. She was accompanied by a panel made up of the author of the report Andrew Curry, Bernard Aryeetey who is Head of Policy, Research and Public Affairs at Shelter plus Andrew Baddeley-Chappell who works as Head of Mortgage Strategy and Policy for the Nationwide Group.
The scenarios were presented to attendees by Andrew Curry who said there would be a number of drivers of change that would challenge how we think about housing and home in the next two decades. According to Andrew, population growth, maturing digital technology, regional bias to London, political fragmentation, falling home ownership and inadequate forms of tenure would all contribute to changing dynamics about housing type and need across England.
Nationwide is the UK’s second largest mortgage provider and Andrew Baddeley-Chappell said materials, warranty, custom or self-build and how much to lend all determine what gets built. He also said that access to mortgage finance for buyers is determined by the Regulator and the Government also has a say – currently represented by their push to incentivise first time buyers.
Reflecting on Shelter’s fiftieth anniversary Bernard Aryeetey said that despite the organisation raising one million pounds to help Shelter’s face-to-face services in Birmingham and Sheffield, homelessness is rising and the housing system isn’t working. He added that social housing will be lost under the Housing and Planning Bill and 100,000 children are living in temporary accommodation.
With twenty organisations from the housing sector in attendance this led to a very lively and informative debate. Comparisons were drawn with what it is like to rent in Germany and across Europe as well as why NIMBY-ISM (Not in My Back Yard) continues to influence local planning applications and prevent house building across the country.
Interestingly, it was raised that whilst the north of England plans to build a strong local economy the south of England will have to deal with the fallout of dominant economic growth because of the high cost of living and renting.
Much like ARLA and NAEA’s Housing 2025 Report, The Future of Housing and Home: Scenarios from 2030 makes a substantial contribution to the debate about finding long-term solutions to ensuring everyone has a house that they can call home.
READ THE FULL REPORT by Shelter, who support ARLA’s campaign for mandatory Client Money Protection for letting agents.